A-Shares: Is the Interest Rate Cut Rebound Just a One-Day Event?
Although there was a widespread rise without significant strength, fortunately, there was no significant drop despite good news today.
Although the early morning pullback was quite alarming, it quickly rebounded, and in the end, it did not disappoint investors, nor did it let the outside world look down on our A-share market too much, which saved some face.
In the morning, watching the U.S. stock market rise and fall after an unexpected interest rate cut, and closing down across the board, I instantly lost confidence in today's A-shares.
However, the hope was ignited again by the sharp rise in the Nikkei index at the opening of the morning.
Although I was still bearish in my heart, I really hoped that A-shares could surprise investors.
But all hopes of rebounding are pinned on the national team.
If the national team does not take the lead, it cannot carry the banner of the rebound, and no matter how many good news, it is all in vain.
After the index broke through 2700 points in the afternoon yesterday, the major stock indexes reached a new low.
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The national team began to exert force, which is very much in line with the recent pattern of external forces supporting the market.
However, external forces often only appear at critical moments.
When the external forces led the index to temporarily win the battle to defend 2700 points yesterday.
So the possibility of external forces supporting the market again today is not great, so I have no confidence in whether there will be a rebound today, nor dare I have too much hope.
In fact, in the morning, under a wave of rapid selling by the national team, the index once again experienced a rapid decline, and soon rebounded quickly with the efforts of the national team.
At the same time, domestic institutional funds also began to flow back slightly, obviously, domestic institutional funds are cooperating with the national team to do more.
It is obvious from the time-sharing chart that the theme style is leading the rise.
And the dividend board that rose sharply yesterday fell rapidly in the morning, and the decline of the dividend board is obviously conducive to the rotation of funds to the theme style.
The market will definitely welcome it with a smile, and as the real estate rose sharply and the brewing was lifted during the day, the index also rebounded to a certain extent, forming a trend of heavyweights building the stage and themes singing on the stage.
The morning volume exceeded 130 billion, but the whole day only increased by 147.8 billion, which seems to be a large increase in volume.
In fact, the northbound funds rested yesterday, so the actual increase in volume is not large, and the total turnover of the day is only more than 620 billion.
Looking at the interval, in fact, there was not much increase in volume in the afternoon, obviously the funds are unwilling to chase high.
Without funds to continue to rise, it is difficult to have strength in the rebound.
Nearly 4,800 stocks rose at the close, but there were only 76 stocks on the limit, less than 300 stocks with an increase of more than 5%, and more than 3,200 stocks with an increase of less than 3%.
A large number of investors' accounts did not see much blood back, but compared to the volume, the performance of individual stocks on the market is also good.
From the performance of the plate, the big consumption rose to the forefront, such as agricultural product processing, aquatic products, seed industry, fishery and so on.
This is more driven by the rebound after the continuous sharp decline of the liquor plate.
They all belong to the over-sold varieties, and some of the big technology plates are also leading the rise, which is also a rebound from over-sold.
Overall, the plate belongs to a swarm-like rebound, and the leading plate does not have a very hard reason, and the funds do not have a main line of attack, and still focus on the rotation of over-sold rebound.
From the performance of the hot plate, it is difficult to continue to promote the rebound.
The probability of a one-day rebound is relatively large.
Of course, it is not only because of the disordered rotation of the plate, but also for the following reasons: First, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years, which is of great significance.
Regardless of whether the long-term decline of A-shares is due to their own reasons, A-shares have been in a long-term, desperate decline, and there is an inherent requirement for a rebound from over-sold.
If the main force wants to take the opportunity to launch a rebound, the heavy good news of interest rate cuts is definitely a very good catalyst.
Obviously, such a heavy good news has not been well utilized by the main force of funds.
It will be difficult to do more in the future, and it will be impossible to form a gathering force.
Second, I have always emphasized that to form a rebound at this position, it must be done in one go, and it must be done in one go to form a larger rebound strength.
This can reverse the short-term pessimistic forecast.
If it is hesitant here, the rebound is difficult to go far.
The short-term rebound soon becomes the power of the hammer plate.
Third, if A-shares want to form a bottom at this position and have a big rebound, they must rely on internal forces to achieve it, and cannot be satisfied because of an external interest rate cut.
Fourth, from the performance of the U.S. stock market in response to the interest rate cut, it can be seen that the impact of the interest rate cut on the capital market is not very large.
The reason why A-shares rebounded today is still related to the long-term misalignment with the foreign market.
The significance of a single interest rate cut is not great.
Only when the quantitative change reaches the qualitative change, and after a series of interest rate cuts, it will definitely have a certain positive impact on A-shares.
Fifth, today's domestic funds only flowed in more than 5 billion, which is only a symbolic cooperation with good news.
The institutional funds are not willing to fight, and there are only 7 trading days left before the long holiday.
The institutional funds are mainly for risk avoidance, and the probability of launching a market can be how big.
From my understanding, I still have doubts about today's rebound market.
Long-term readers who pay attention to me know that I will never draw a bullish conclusion from a one-day rebound market, let alone today's rebound strength is too small.
It does not meet my bullish conditions at all.
So I naturally will not chase the rise in the short term, and I have always adhered to the strategy of low absorption.
However, it is easy to say low absorption, but it is very difficult to do it.
All of this must be carried out under the premise of strictly controlling the position.
In the short term, the market cannot meet the conditions of a big fall, panic killing, and low absorption.
Short-term transactions can only buy more when they fall, and run when they make a profit.
I still look bearish on the short-term market.
This is just to remind everyone not to touch when it rises, but not to be afraid when it falls.
Because in the medium and long term, I have repeatedly reminded everyone that the positive factors in the market are increasing, and the market lacks a promoter for the rebound.
I have mentioned several times that the main long-term positive factors are the dense increase and repurchase of listed companies, the acceleration of the issuance of stock funds, the continuous increase in the amount of funds purchased by the national team, and the increase in the social security fund, etc.
Another simplest truth is that "the market cannot fall like this forever."
Everyone knows this truth, but the only thing that is not clear is how much space there is from the bottom now.
No one can give you an answer, and we can only believe that after a long period of capital market reform, the dawn will be getting closer and closer.
During the holiday, I saw a set of data, and Bank of America recently issued a report that since the beginning of this year, emerging market stocks have attracted 109 billion US dollars, of which 91.6 billion US dollars flowed into the Chinese stock market, and 20.3 billion US dollars flowed into the Indian stock market!
The Chinese stock market is much more than the Indian stock market.
Of course, after the northbound funds were closed, it is currently unclear about the trend of foreign capital in the past few months.
Regardless of whether foreign capital has been outflow or inflow this year, domestic capital is the main force of the hammer plate, and we should not blame the market decline on foreign capital.
The main force of domestic capital is definitely not the interest rate cut, and we should not expect that after the interest rate cut, the attitude of domestic capital will change, and it will actively do more.
From today's inflow of 5.3 billion in domestic capital, it is enough to show the attitude of domestic institutional funds, and it is likely to hammer the plate again tomorrow.
The main focus of domestic institutional funds is whether the economic indicators are warming up, but from the industrial data such as PMI, CPI, PPI, real estate data in August, it is impossible to be optimistic.
In this way, what can domestic capital do more?
What can the market rebound?
In general, the short term does not have the momentum for a sustained rebound, and it can only be seen as a rebound from over-sold.
After the rebound, neither chase nor get too involved.
If you fall, buy appropriately and make a difference.
Prudent investors can only continue to wait.
Finally, let's talk about a few hot topics in the market: 1.
The National Development and Reform Commission: Launch a batch of incremental policy measures with strong operability, good effects, and tangible benefits for the public and enterprises.
Jin Xiandong, Director of the Policy Research Office and spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that we should accelerate the comprehensive implementation of the policies and measures that have been determined, coordinate the construction of "hard investment" and "soft construction" such as policies, plans, and mechanisms, and promote the construction and start of government investment projects such as "two heavy" as soon as possible to form physical work volume.
At the same time, we should strengthen policy research and reserve, and launch a batch of incremental policy measures with strong operability, good effects, and tangible benefits for the public and enterprises.
Looking forward to more policies to further stimulate consumption and investment.
The key to consumption is that residents have no confidence in the future, dare not consume, and are unwilling to consume.
Only by fully mobilizing the enthusiasm of residents' consumption can the economic cycle be maintained smoothly.
2.
The global "interest rate cut tide" has been set off!
Institutions: The country has the space to promote a new round of reserve requirement ratio reduction and interest rate cuts.
After the Federal Reserve's rare interest rate cut of 50 basis points, a round of "interest rate cut tide" has been set off globally.
On September 19, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the Central Bank of Kuwait, the Central Bank of Bahrain, the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates, the Central Bank of Qatar, and others collectively announced interest rate cuts.
Before the Federal Reserve, many central banks have chosen to "pre-run" interest rate cuts, among which the Bank of Canada has cut interest rates three times in a row.
Many institutions believe that the country's monetary policy has obtained a rare adjustment time window, and there is room to promote a new round of reserve requirement ratio reduction and interest rate cuts.
The country has been continuously cutting interest rates against the tightening policy of the Federal Reserve, and the monetary policy has been continuously easing.
Once the interest rate cut channel of the Federal Reserve is opened, this provides a lot of room for operation for the country's monetary policy, and the possibility of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reduction is increased, providing more support for economic recovery.
So we cannot simply understand the greater significance brought by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.
3.
The A-share "Chinese zodiac" market starts once a year?
"Snake year concept stocks" rise one after another.
Today, the snake year concept stocks have shown signs of starting.
Of course, the zodiac speculation has long been a common occurrence, and it has never stopped, such as the rabbit year rabbit baby, the dragon year Shenglong shares, and this part of the funds usually start to lay the bottom warehouse from the fourth quarter.
So the timing is very important.
The current market believes that the stocks that meet the snake year zodiac concept mainly include Baota Industry (Leifeng Pagoda Town White Snake), Doctor Glasses (homophonic "glasses snake"), Chuanfa Longmeng, China Merchants Shekou, Longbai Group (formerly known as "Longmeng Bai Li"), Huluwa, etc.
As of today's closing, the above stocks have increased by 1.28%, 2.94%, 1.7%, 3.37%, 1.82%, 2.92%, and 2.34% respectively.
Although it is not prominent, many stocks have recently appeared in a continuous rebound trend.
In addition, some investors believe that Enlight Media, because it has the white snake IP, and the combination of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day movie may be in line with the speculation hotspot, may also be classified as "snake year concept stocks" by the market.
The stock rose by 2.45% today.
"Existence is rational, and many people turn up their noses at this kind of hype.
They think it's nonsensical promotion, but for capital, any hype that can form a synergy and elicit a market response can bring a profit effect.
In fact, this is just one of the choices for speculative capital in a weak market, a way for speculative capital to create conditions to produce a profit effect.
Moreover, the zodiac speculation happens once a year, not every day.
For retail investors, as long as the performance is good, they are all in the aftermath of a big drop, and there is a reason for capital to speculate.
If you want to get involved, do it early, how much risk can there be?
Don't wait until it soars to chase it, then the risk may be much greater."
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